Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.3 | 10.3% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.9 | 11.8% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 9.0 | 21.7% | 112 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 7.1 | 16.6% | 86 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.0 | 10.4% | 54 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.1 | 9.7% | 50 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.1 | 8.1% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.4 | 11.4% | 59 | 0.56% |
| All ages | 35 | 42.0 | 100% | 517 | 0.49% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 29396 | 219439 | 682 | 175 | 799 |
| Feb 12 | 29412 | 219707 | 683 | 175 | 660 |
| Feb 13 | 29440 | 219881 | 683 | 175 | 590 |
| Feb 14 | 29485 | 220150 | 683 | 175 | 550 |
| Feb 15 | 29539 | 220675 | 684 | 175 | 547 |
| Feb 16 | 29574 | 221014 | 685 | 175 | 543 |
| Feb 17 | 29609 | 221173 | 685 | 175 | 517 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 18279 | 146491 | 673 | 175 | 413 |
| Feb 12 | 18294 | 146596 | 674 | 175 | 351 |
| Feb 13 | 18308 | 146761 | 675 | 175 | 294 |
| Feb 14 | 18325 | 146904 | 675 | 175 | 278 |
| Feb 15 | 18341 | 147228 | 675 | 175 | 249 |
| Feb 16 | 18369 | 147504 | 676 | 175 | 252 |
| Feb 17 | 18381 | 147620 | 676 | 175 | 237 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.0 | 10.5% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.1 | 10.1% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.3 | 15.2% | 36 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.4 | 22.8% | 54 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.0 | 13.5% | 32 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.6 | 11.8% | 28 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.6 | 7.2% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.9 | 8.9% | 21 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 12 | 17.9 | 100% | 237 | 0.37% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 13183 | 86009 | 521 | 133 | 232 |
| Feb 12 | 13197 | 86155 | 521 | 133 | 209 |
| Feb 13 | 13204 | 86203 | 521 | 133 | 187 |
| Feb 14 | 13215 | 86293 | 522 | 133 | 172 |
| Feb 15 | 13242 | 86467 | 523 | 133 | 163 |
| Feb 16 | 13258 | 86540 | 524 | 133 | 166 |
| Feb 17 | 13267 | 86615 | 524 | 133 | 164 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.1 | 11.6% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.1 | 7.9% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.4 | 9.1% | 15 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.4 | 15.9% | 26 | 0.48% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.1 | 12.2% | 20 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 20.1% | 33 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.4 | 11% | 18 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.6 | 12.2% | 20 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 9 | 13.7 | 100% | 164 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 33618 | 296339 | 983 | 163 | 926 |
| Feb 12 | 33666 | 296645 | 985 | 163 | 769 |
| Feb 13 | 33692 | 296860 | 987 | 163 | 693 |
| Feb 14 | 33743 | 297179 | 989 | 163 | 634 |
| Feb 15 | 33790 | 297730 | 991 | 163 | 650 |
| Feb 16 | 33837 | 298074 | 993 | 163 | 661 |
| Feb 17 | 33877 | 298382 | 994 | 163 | 609 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.7 | 12% | 73 | 0.62% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 5.4 | 13.6% | 83 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 7.0 | 15.3% | 93 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 9.6 | 19.4% | 118 | 0.87% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.0 | 11.7% | 71 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.4 | 10.3% | 63 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.1 | 9.9% | 60 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.6 | 7.9% | 48 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 40 | 45.9 | 100% | 609 | 0.52% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 119942 | 2322808 | 2508 | 478 | 3841 |
| Feb 12 | 120149 | 2324600 | 2509 | 478 | 3430 |
| Feb 13 | 120253 | 2325965 | 2509 | 478 | 3055 |
| Feb 14 | 120427 | 2327812 | 2509 | 478 | 2723 |
| Feb 15 | 120696 | 2331493 | 2514 | 478 | 2694 |
| Feb 16 | 120896 | 2335007 | 2516 | 478 | 2722 |
| Feb 17 | 121074 | 2336984 | 2519 | 478 | 2578 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 35 | 36.1 | 17.7% | 457 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 31 | 30.6 | 16.1% | 416 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 40 | 37.4 | 19.3% | 498 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 38.1 | 17.2% | 444 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 22.6 | 11.6% | 299 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 16.0 | 7.9% | 203 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 13.0 | 5.9% | 152 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 6 | 8.9 | 4.2% | 109 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 178 | 202.7 | 100% | 2578 | 0.47% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | 1555467 | 13421664 | 61526 | 13042 | 30114 |
| Feb 12 | 1556851 | 13435567 | 61558 | 13049 | 26107 |
| Feb 13 | 1557615 | 13445304 | 61583 | 13053 | 22790 |
| Feb 14 | 1559167 | 13458019 | 61621 | 13059 | 20814 |
| Feb 15 | 1561037 | 13482977 | 61660 | 13063 | 20207 |
| Feb 16 | 1562877 | 13505340 | 61704 | 13067 | 20686 |
| Feb 17 | 1564381 | 13518253 | 61726 | 13068 | 19811 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 209 | 206.0 | 13.2% | 2616 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 190 | 177.4 | 12% | 2375 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 227 | 226.9 | 14.4% | 2843 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 263 | 262.0 | 16.6% | 3284 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 184 | 191.1 | 12.6% | 2496 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 158 | 190.6 | 12% | 2387 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 158 | 166.7 | 10.1% | 2009 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 109 | 149.9 | 8.9% | 1772 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 1504 | 1572.4 | 100% | 19811 | 0.34% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-03-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13849"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges